目前，半導(dǎo)體和芯片制造設(shè)備行業(yè)的出口亮點(diǎn)陡然變暗，但原因并不在于中國。拜登正在以可能導(dǎo)致美國對(duì)海外銷售大幅削減的方式重塑美國的出口管制制度。新制度可能短期內(nèi)會(huì)保護(hù)了美國的公司，也力求減輕國家安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但這無疑會(huì)讓美國公司付出巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)，損害美國科技企業(yè)。美國在手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng)和芯片上對(duì)華為的全面限制是否能抑制住華為在科技方面發(fā)展，這個(gè)話題相信是全球華為粉絲及科技愛好所關(guān)心的。在美國論壇Quroa上就有網(wǎng)友拋出這樣一個(gè)話題：美國切斷對(duì)中國公司華為的技術(shù)銷售對(duì)美國來說可能適得其反嗎？讓我們來看看各國民間網(wǎng)友是如何看待此事的吧
論壇話題：美國切斷對(duì)中國公司華為的技術(shù)銷售對(duì)美國來說可能適得其反嗎？
加拿大網(wǎng)友的觀點(diǎn)
Yes, and the scariest part of this stuff is that it basically illustrates that tech policy in the US is run by people that are clueless about tech and who believe their own propaganda.
是的，最可怕的是，它基本上說明了美國的科技政策是由那些對(duì)科技一無所知、相信自己宣傳的人制定的。
You have people that seem to seriously believe that Chinese scientists and engineers are incapable of building anything original, and so if you block US exports of technology, then China will crumble.
有些人似乎真的相信中國科學(xué)家和工程師沒有能力制造任何原創(chuàng)的東西，所以如果你阻止美國的技術(shù)出口，那么中國將崩潰。
In fact, the big reason that China buys stuff from the West rather than build it internally is that it’s faster and cheaper to just write checks to get tech than to build it yourself. But by putting a situation in which China is *forced* to build stuff, then you create a situation were China will have local alternatives to Western products, rather than just using Western products.
事實(shí)上，中國從西方購買東西而不是自己建造的主要原因是，直接開支票獲得技術(shù)比自己建造更快更便宜。但是，如果中國被“強(qiáng)迫”建造東西，那么你就創(chuàng)造了這樣一種局面:中國將有西方產(chǎn)品的本地替代品，而不僅僅是使用西方產(chǎn)品。
The reason this is particularly stupid is that this has already happened. In the early days of the internet, someone thought it would be a good idea for Western companies to refuse to comply with local censorship laws, and to “boycott” China. The result of this is that China is the only part of the world where the internet industry is not dominated by US based companies but rather by local ones.
這種做法之所以特別愚蠢，是因?yàn)檫@種情況已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的早期，有人認(rèn)為西方公司拒絕遵守當(dāng)?shù)氐膶彶榉刹ⅰ暗种啤敝袊莻€(gè)好主意。其結(jié)果是，中國是世界上唯一一個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)不是由美國公司主導(dǎo)，而是由本土公司主導(dǎo)的地區(qū)。
As long as China can buy US tech, then Chinese companies have no reason to create products and services that directly compete with US companies, but once you cut that off, you force Chinese companies to do that, and you’ll end up with stuff that directly challenges US offerings in the future.
只要中國可以購買美國的技術(shù)，那么中國公司就沒有理由創(chuàng)造出直接與美國公司競(jìng)爭的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)，但一旦你切斷了這一點(diǎn)，你就迫使中國公司這樣做，你最終會(huì)在未來直接挑戰(zhàn)美國的產(chǎn)品。
The amount of stupidity here is staggering.
這里的愚蠢程度是驚人的。
法國軟件工程師的觀點(diǎn)
YES. Those actions have awaken the world that too much reliance on American technologies is fatal, since the US can cut off the supplies anytime it wants in the name of “national security”.
是的。這些行動(dòng)讓世界意識(shí)到，過度依賴美國技術(shù)是致命的，因?yàn)槊绹梢砸浴皣野踩钡拿x，隨時(shí)切斷對(duì)美技術(shù)的供應(yīng)。
For example, if a Japanese company somehow becomes the leader in 6G technologies in the future, you can bet the US will do similar thing to that Japanese company as they are doing to Huawei now.
例如，如果一家日本公司在未來以某種方式成為6G技術(shù)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，你可以打賭，美國將對(duì)這家日本公司采取類似于他們現(xiàn)在對(duì)華為所做的事情。
Don’t want to get banned by the US? Then don’t try to be ahead of the US in anything. This is the message the US is sending to the world.
不想被美國禁止嗎?那就不要試圖在任何方面領(lǐng)先美國。這是美國向世界傳遞的信息。
According to Chinese social media, the applications for positions in HiSilicon, the semi-conductor arm of Huawei, skyrocketed after the ban.
據(jù)中國社交媒體報(bào)道，禁令出臺(tái)后，華為旗下半導(dǎo)體子公司海思半導(dǎo)體的職位申請(qǐng)大幅增加。
And all the Chinese mobile phone makers are now taking a second look at Chinese domestic IC chips, which they used to shun as those Chinese ICs are 20–30% lower in performance. There used to be a vicious cycle that stunts the growth of Chinese IC industry: bad performance -> no one uses them -> no money for R&D and no chance to test for bugs -> bad performance. So the best way to slow down the development of Chinese IC industry is actually for the US to sell as many IC chips to China as possible. This way, Chinese IC firms will be starved from the capital and talents needed to grow.
所有的中國手機(jī)制造商現(xiàn)在都在重新審視中國本土的IC芯片，他們過去一直回避中國本土的IC芯片，因?yàn)樗鼈兊男阅鼙戎袊就列酒?0-30%。過去有一個(gè)惡性循環(huán)阻礙了中國集成電路產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展:性能差——沒有人使用它們——沒有研發(fā)資金和測(cè)試bug的機(jī)會(huì)——性能差。所以，減緩中國IC產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的最好方法，實(shí)際上是美國向中國出售盡可能多的IC芯片。這樣一來，中國的集成電路公司將缺乏發(fā)展所需的資本和人才。
With the ban on Huawei, this vicious cycle is broken. Going forward, Chinese IC industry will go through a virtuous cycle: more usage -> more money for R&D and more chance to test for bugs -> better performance -> more usage.
對(duì)華為的禁令打破了這種惡性循環(huán)。展望未來，中國IC產(chǎn)業(yè)將經(jīng)歷一個(gè)良性循環(huán):更多的使用——更多的研發(fā)資金和更多的bug測(cè)試機(jī)會(huì)——更好的性能——更多的使用。
And Chinese government will have no reservation on showering Chinese IC companies with state support, which is exactly what Trump tries to stop. Now that Trump shows that the US is happy to use governmental actions to crush commercial competitons, Chinese government will have no qualms at all in supporting Chinese IC firms with subsidies and protectionist measures.
中國將毫無保留地給予中國IC企業(yè)大量的國家支持，這正是特朗普試圖阻止的。既然特朗普顯示出美國樂于使用政府行動(dòng)來打擊商業(yè)競(jìng)爭，中國將毫不猶豫地用補(bǔ)貼和保護(hù)主義措施支持中國的集成電路公司。
Globally, 7 out of the top 10 mobile phone makers are Chinese. And just Chinese domestic market alone is 1.4 billion strong, which is big enough for Chinese mobile phone makers to adopt Chinese ICs. After Chinese ICs become better, they will then be rolled out to other developing markets.
在全球范圍內(nèi)，前10大手機(jī)制造商中有7家是中國的。僅中國國內(nèi)市場(chǎng)就有14億美元，足以讓中國手機(jī)制造商采用中國芯片。在中國集成電路變得更好之后，它們將被推廣到其他發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)。
Once the virtuous cycle starts to kick in, we will witness a meteoric rise of Chinese IC industry. It really doesn’t bode well for American IC industry.
一旦形成良性循環(huán)，我們將見證中國IC產(chǎn)業(yè)的迅速崛起。這對(duì)美國的集成電路產(chǎn)業(yè)來說真的不是一個(gè)好兆頭。
In short, if you are looking for what MYOPIC policy is like, you can’t find a better example like Trump’s ban on Huawei and other Chinese tech companies.
簡而言之，如果你想知道短視政策是什么樣的，你找不到比特朗普禁止華為和其他中國科技公司更好的例子了。
南非網(wǎng)友的觀點(diǎn)
This is a indeed a very dumb move by the Americans, one that is going to have severe negative repercussions for the entire US tech industry in the long term. The chip makers and more specifically Google.
這確實(shí)是美國人的一個(gè)非常愚蠢的舉動(dòng)，從長遠(yuǎn)來看，這將對(duì)整個(gè)美國科技行業(yè)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響。芯片制造商，更確切地說是谷歌。
Their actions against Huawei are setting off alarm bells in the entire global cell phone manufacturing industry. Most cell phone manufacturers are not US companies. The move to ban the sales of vital chips to Huawei has most likely made all cell phone manufacturers look very closely at their reliance on American chips and technology and therefore their vulnerabilities to the whims of an unpredictable character like Donald Trump. No doubt they are all looking at what steps they can take to reduce their reliance on American chips and their exposure to the whims of US presidents.
他們針對(duì)華為的行動(dòng)給全球手機(jī)制造業(yè)敲響了警鐘。大多數(shù)手機(jī)制造商都不是美國公司。禁止向華為銷售關(guān)鍵芯片的舉措，很可能讓所有手機(jī)制造商都非常仔細(xì)地審視自己對(duì)美國芯片和技術(shù)的依賴，以及它們?cè)谔萍{德·特朗普(Donald Trump)這樣不可預(yù)測(cè)的人物突發(fā)奇想時(shí)的弱點(diǎn)。毫無疑問，他們都在考慮采取什么措施，以減少對(duì)美國芯片的依賴，減少對(duì)美國總統(tǒng)心血來潮的影響。
Huawei is going to suffer enormous damage in the immediate and medium term, no doubt. However the company that is ultimately going to pay the biggest price is Google and it’s Android operating system. In fact I would go as far to say that this is the beginning of the end for Android and ultimately Google.
毫無疑問，華為將在近期和中期遭受巨大損失。然而，最終付出最大代價(jià)的公司是谷歌和它的Android操作系統(tǒng)。事實(shí)上，我想說的是，這是Android和谷歌終結(jié)的開始。
華為鴻蒙系統(tǒng)
You can be rest assured that right now every cell phone manufacturing companies’ top brass are having emergency meetings to discuss this earth shattering move by Google, its impact on Huawei, the cell phone industry and the impact such a move would have on their own company if the US should do the same to them.
你可以放心，現(xiàn)在每個(gè)手機(jī)制造公司的高層都在召開緊急會(huì)議，討論谷歌的這一驚天動(dòng)地的舉動(dòng)，它對(duì)華為、手機(jī)行業(yè)的影響，以及如果美國對(duì)他們采取同樣的行動(dòng)，這一舉動(dòng)將對(duì)他們自己的公司產(chǎn)生的影響。
I bet they are all feeling highly uncomfortable that by the stroke of a pen, someone as impulsive, thin skinned and unpredictable as Trump can literally destroy their multi-billion dollar companies overnight. Samsung, LG, Sony and all other major cell phone manufacturing companies are most likely going to instruct their R&D departments to start working immediately on developing their own operating systems.
我敢打賭，他們都感到非常不舒服，因?yàn)樘乩势者@樣沖動(dòng)、臉皮薄、不可預(yù)測(cè)的人，一筆筆就能在一夜之間摧毀他們價(jià)值數(shù)十億美元的公司。三星、LG、索尼和所有其他主要的手機(jī)制造公司很可能會(huì)指示他們的研發(fā)部門立即開始開發(fā)自己的操作系統(tǒng)。
You can be rest assured that future devices from Samsung, LG, Sony and Huawei etc will be coming out with their own operating systems. Bear in mind that virtually all cell phone companies are not American companies. Android is not going to survive this – it is going to be gone within a decade.
你可以放心，三星、LG、索尼和華為等未來的設(shè)備將會(huì)推出自己的操作系統(tǒng)。請(qǐng)記住，實(shí)際上所有的手機(jī)公司都不是美國公司。Android不會(huì)在這個(gè)時(shí)代幸存下來——它將在十年內(nèi)消失。
Less or no Android phones means less revenue from Google Play store, less Gmail users etc. Google’s revenue and shares are going to tank.
更少或更少的Android手機(jī)意味著谷歌Play store的收益更少，Gmail用戶也更少。谷歌的營收和股價(jià)都將暴跌。
The same for their reliance on American chips. They are going to start making a concerted effort to wean themselves off American chips and seek alternatives. Most likely the alternatives is going to come from China, who is now going to accelerate the development and manufacture of their own such chips.
他們對(duì)美國芯片的依賴也是如此。他們將開始共同努力，擺脫對(duì)美國芯片的依賴，尋找替代品。最有可能的替代選擇將來自中國，中國現(xiàn)在正在加快開發(fā)和制造自己的此類芯片。
I think ultimately it is going to affect more than just the cell phone and chip industry. The Trump administration’s over eagerness to use such tactics willy nilly is making companies, in all industries across the globe, look at their exposure to, and any reliance they may have on, any American equipment and technology.
我認(rèn)為最終影響的將不僅僅是手機(jī)和芯片行業(yè)。特朗普政府過于急切地不顧一切地使用這種策略，正在讓全球所有行業(yè)的公司審視它們對(duì)美國設(shè)備和技術(shù)的敞口，以及它們可能對(duì)美國設(shè)備和技術(shù)的依賴。
Steps are going to be taken to reduce that reliance and exposure. Because of these latest moves, overexposure to and reliance on American equipment and technology is henceforth going to be viewed as a major risk. Steps are going to be taken to mitigate this risk, which ultimately is going to result in less and less business for American companies.
我們將采取措施減少這種依賴和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口。由于這些最新舉措，過度暴露和依賴美國設(shè)備和技術(shù)將被視為一個(gè)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們將采取措施來降低這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這最終將導(dǎo)致美國公司的業(yè)務(wù)越來越少。
This is a massive own goal for American business.
這對(duì)美國企業(yè)來說是一個(gè)巨大的烏龍。
中國網(wǎng)友的觀點(diǎn)
At least many people in China, especially those pro free market or pro US ones, are getting disappointed and disillusioned by recent series of acts against Huawei.
至少在中國，很多人，尤其是那些支持自由市場(chǎng)和美國的人，對(duì)最近一系列針對(duì)華為的行為感到失望和幻滅。
They were not in this mood when similar things happened to ZTE not far ago.
不久前，當(dāng)類似的事情發(fā)生在中興通訊身上時(shí)，他們沒有這種心情。
Why? Because ZTE is a state company and Huawei is a private company.
為什么?因?yàn)橹信d是一家國有公司，華為是一家私營公司。
Huawei is everything entrepreneurship stands for in China: hard working, innovation, competitive rewards, ruthless competition, etc.
華為就是中國企業(yè)家精神所代表的一切:努力工作、創(chuàng)新、有競(jìng)爭力的回報(bào)、無情的競(jìng)爭等等。
Compared to other telecom tech companies in China ten more years ago, Huawei didn’t get more special favor from Chinese govt, as many other companies are state owned, including ZTE, Julong, Datang. Even Alcatel’ Chinese subsidiary is half owned by Chinese govt. Whilst Huawei was and has kept been a private company.
與十多年前的中國其他電信科技公司相比，華為并沒有得到中國政府更多的特殊優(yōu)待，因?yàn)樵S多其他公司都是國有的，包括中興、巨龍、大唐。就連阿爾卡特的中國子公司也有一半是由中國政府所有的，而華為過去和現(xiàn)在都是一家私營公司。
Huawei faced a lot of uncertainty back then, to the extent they almost sold the company to Motorola in 2003. The deal was not closed only because Motorola’s new CEO had no interest in buying an unknown Chinese tech company.
當(dāng)時(shí)華為面臨著很多不確定性，以至于他們?cè)?003年差點(diǎn)把公司賣給摩托羅拉。這筆交易之所以能達(dá)成，不僅僅是因?yàn)槟ν辛_拉的新CEO無意收購一家不知名的中國科技公司。
Some may say, yeah, private company huh? Who knows Chinese govt isn’t at work behind the curtain. My argument is, if you accept a state owned (openly or covertly) company could ascend to one of very top Tech and consumer electronics companies in the world, then you don’t have enough faith in free market and capitalism.
有些人可能會(huì)說，是的，私人公司?誰知道中國政府不是幕后主使。我的觀點(diǎn)是，如果你接受一個(gè)國有(公開或秘密)公司可以成為世界上最頂尖的科技和消費(fèi)電子公司之一，那么你對(duì)自由市場(chǎng)和資本主義沒有足夠的信心。
So here’s how people like me view the attack on Huawei:
以下是我這樣的人對(duì)華為遭受攻擊的看法:
You start by saying China is using state power to interfere the market, state owned companies are having too much edge over foreign and private ones, thus making competition unfair and trade unbalanced. Alright, at least we all agree to push China towards the direction of more structural reform and opening up, so we can leave that door open.
你們一開始說中國正在利用國家權(quán)力干預(yù)市場(chǎng)，國有企業(yè)比外國和私營企業(yè)有太多優(yōu)勢(shì)，從而導(dǎo)致競(jìng)爭不公平和貿(mào)易不平衡。好吧，至少我們都同意推動(dòng)中國走向更多結(jié)構(gòu)性改革和開放的方向，所以我們可以敞開大門。
You ban the use of Huawei telecom gears in US, that’s understandable too, because though there’s no hard evidence ever presented, you can always say as long as capability is there so intention doesn’t matter——after all intention can change at times or on whims, as displayed by the great incumbent POTUS himself.
你們?cè)诿绹故褂萌A為電信設(shè)備，這也是可以理解的，因?yàn)殡m然沒有確鑿的證據(jù)，但你們總可以說，只要有能力，所以意圖并不重要——畢竟意圖有時(shí)會(huì)改變，就像偉大的現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)自己所展示的那樣。
By this you are showing you are a caring big brother, you know better what other people should have; and because you are so omniscient and omnipotent, you can dictate billions of people to do as you say, for their own sake of course. If the persuasion doesn’t work well, you can force them to, one way or another.
這表明你們是一個(gè)有愛心的大哥哥，你更知道別人應(yīng)該擁有什么;因?yàn)槟闶侨绱说臒o所不知和無所不能，你可以命令數(shù)十億人按照你說的去做，當(dāng)然是為了他們自己。如果說服不起作用，你可以強(qiáng)迫他們這樣或那樣。
Wait, is that the same U.S. of A. we are talking about? Because that sounds a lot like the enemy US as we knew would paint on.
等等，這就是我們說的美國嗎?因?yàn)檫@聽起來很像我們所知道的敵人美國。
Where goes the Beacon of Liberty? Where goes the Land of the Free?
自由燈塔在哪里?自由之國在哪里?
